In Restructuring the Chinese Economy, Michael Pettis outlines six paths that China can follow—the only logical paths that lead ultimately to. Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring. MICHAEL PETTIS. Copyright Date: Published by: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Avoiding the Fall has 98 ratings and 6 reviews. The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean t.

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Value investors allocate capital to its most productive use. Steve Waas rated it liked it Nov 16, An expert on China’s economy, Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. But in fact this doesn’t seem to be reflected in the economy.

Other editions – View all Avoiding the Fall: Michael Pettis debunks the lingering bullish expectations for China’s economic rise and details Beijing’s options.

Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring

He then spends much of the pondering how China can possibly increase consumption rapidly enough to handle a fall in GDP growth when investment and export growth simply cannot support the growth of the economy any more. Will China start selling to its own people?

The upside is that while China will slow dramatically in the rebalancing process, the shift towards consumption will partially offset that slowing and insulate the household sector.

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Pettis draws apt parallels between China, and Brazil of 70s, US of the 20s and 30s, Japan of the 90s; and One of the best books I have read this year. This book is already a classic for me. In light of these issues, Pettis brilliantly lays out the routes China can take while bearing in mind their limitations.

Some of these issues include large alterations in interest rates, wages, currency, and legal structure, with, of course, political gain of the reimbursements of growth.

Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring – Michael Pettis – Google Books

In this sense, the burden of cost can be disproportionately spread across different facets of the economy. Jonathan Tepper rated it really liked it Oct 13, If it does that, then it will need to return money to the household sector, which will decrease capital available for investment.

Politics in China hindered the types of changes required to allow the country to keep growing in a positive manner. Peter rated it really liked it Oct 13, He was a very successful trader prior to this. Michael Pettis is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. In many ways the argument this book makes about China’s economy is now conventional–its growth has been fueled by investment, the investment is funded through financial repression that results in an Keen was right overall but wildly wrong on detail, he made a bet that Australian houses would plummet in value which they promptly did not.


Pettis thinks that China is massively over investing in infrastructure and that this investment has become unproductive. Jason Kam rated it it was amazing Dec 24, Just a moment avoidin we sign you in to your Goodreads account. The question for China is when will growth slow down?

And much of it makes it sound like Pettis has invented some of the more basic concepts. The book is definitely worth reading for anyone interested in looking at why China may well crash in the next few years. Kevin rated it really liked it Jan 25, If you have read his previous book: Trivia About Avoiding the Fall Want to Read saving….

He points to the examples of Brazil in the s, Japan in the s, the US in the early s and a hypothesized example of Germany in the late s as examples of a failure of this kind of development.

Pettis lives in Beijing and is a professor of finance there. John Lowe rated it it was amazing Sep 06,